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Navigating the Challenges of Unknown Unknowns in Complex Projects

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In the world of project management, the term “unknown unknowns” may sound like a paradox, but it’s a concept that has a significant impact on the success of complex projects. Unknown unknowns are essentially those surprises that pop up unexpectedly and have the potential to derail even the most meticulously planned endeavors. However, it’s crucial to understand that many of these so-called unknown unknowns could have been known if project managers had known where and how to look.

Let’s delve into the world of unknown unknowns, their impact, and how project managers can shine a light into the right holes to uncover uncertainties that could affect a project’s success.

The Elusive Nature of Unknown Unknowns

Unknown unknowns often emerge as the root cause of unwelcome surprises in projects, whether it’s a space shuttle disaster, a train derailment, a terrorist attack, or cost and schedule overruns. Surprisingly, many of these unknown unknowns were not truly unknowable; they were merely hidden from the view of decision-makers. This hidden knowledge often exists within the project teams but fails to reach the top decision-makers.

In some cases, unknown unknowns result from unforeseen interactions among known elements of complex systems, such as product components, process activities, or software systems. Therefore, these surprises can stem from within the project’s ecosystem.

Uncovering the Source of Unknown Unknowns

To address unknown unknowns, it’s essential to look in the right places. In complex projects, unknown unknowns can arise from at least six complex systems:

  1. The desired project result: What the project aims to achieve.
  2. The work done to get the result: The project processes and activities.
  3. The people and teams: The individuals and groups executing the project.
  4. Resources and tools: The equipment and tools used in the project.
  5. Requirements and objectives: The goals and specifications of the project.
  6. The project’s environment: The context in which the project operates.

Each of these systems, or project subsystems, consists of a complex network of interrelated elements. It’s essential to understand how these systems interact with each other and explore their inherent complexities.

Factors That Increase the Likelihood of Unknown Unknowns

Several factors can make unknown unknowns more likely in projects:

Complexity: Complex systems with many elements and intricate relationships are more prone to unknown unknowns.
Complicatedness: This is observer-dependent and relies on the ability of project participants to understand and anticipate the project.
Dynamism: Fast-changing systems are more likely to give rise to unknown unknowns.
Equivocality: Imprecise information or poor communication can cloud judgment.
Mindlessness: Perceptive barriers, biases, and inappropriate filters hinder the recognition of unknown unknowns.
Project pathologies: Structural or behavioral issues, like unclear expectations and dysfunctional cultures, can keep unknown unknowns hidden.

Tools for Uncovering Unknown Unknowns

Addressing unknown unknowns requires the right mindset and toolset. Here are eleven types of tools to help detect unknown unknowns and convert them into known unknowns:

Decompose the project: Model the project’s subsystems to understand their structures and complexities.
Analyze scenarios: Construct different future outlooks and explore their ramifications.
Use checklists: Draw insights from past projects and codify learning.
Scrutinize plans: Independently review project work plans, schedules, resources, budgets, etc.
Long interviews: Engage in deep interviews with stakeholders to uncover lurking problems and issues.
Pick up weak signals: Recognize subtle signs that something is amiss.
Mine data: Use electronic data mining to extract implicit and potentially useful information.
Communicate frequently and effectively: Foster a culture where bad news can travel up in the organization.
Balance local autonomy and central control: Allow for emergency channels.
Incentivize discovery: Reward those who bring unknown unknowns to light.
Cultivate an alert culture: Educate about unknown unknowns and where they tend to lurk.

The Power of Due Diligence

In summary, the ability to address unknown unknowns is a critical aspect of project planning and execution. When comparing two similar projects, one with identified risks and the other without, it’s often the latter that is riskier. Ignoring uncertainties and risks can lead to delusion and deception, which plague many projects and endeavors.

By following the approaches outlined here, project managers can conduct due diligence and significantly enhance their ability to manage complex projects effectively. Unknown unknowns need not remain hidden when we have the right tools, mindset, and culture in place.

References:

Browning, T. R. and Ramasesh, R. V. (2015). Reducing Unwelcome Surprises in Project Management. MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(3), 53-62.
Ramasesh, R. V. and Browning, T. R. (2014). A Conceptual Framework for Tackling Knowable Unknown Unknowns in Project Management. Journal of Operations Management, 32(4), 190-204.

In complex projects, understanding and addressing unknown unknowns is a key to success. By employing the right tools and approaches, project managers can better prepare for surprises and ensure their projects stay on track.

83 thoughts on “Navigating the Challenges of Unknown Unknowns in Complex Projects”

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